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Analysts disagree on threat to Pakistan nuclear arsenal

by Staff Writers
London (AFP) Dec 28, 2007
Experts in Britain disagreed Friday on how likely it was that extremists could get their hands on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Some analysts have raised fears that instability following Bhutto's killing Thursday could lead to unrest which would open the door for weapons to fall into the wrong hands.

Professor Paul Wilkinson, chairman of Saint Andrews University's Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, said that Western nations "really ought to be concerned" about this "nightmare scenario".

"We could have a situation where extremists were able to control the nuclear facilities of Pakistan," he said.

"That would be a very dangerous, nightmare scenario and one that we really ought to be concerned about."

But Christian Le Miere, managing editor of Jane's security journal Country Risk, said that Pakistan's nuclear capacity "remains strongly in the hands of the military".

He suggested that Bhutto's death would not seriously affect this.

"The issue is cash -- if a scientist or...a group of scientists decide that their income is too low, they could go on the black market to offer material, that's the main danger," he said.

"They have still scientists out there that could pass information to the black market or hand over nuclear material to a state, in order to supplement their income."

He predicted that the military would step up security around facilities in the wake of Bhutto's death.

The former prime minister was killed in Rawalpindi and was buried alongside her father in southern Pakistan on Friday.

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Analysis: Mixed legacy for Bhutto
Washington (UPI) Dec 28, 2007
Benazir Bhutto embodied the best and worst of South Asian politics. She was a charismatic leader who inspired and gave hope to millions of her people, only to disappointment them with the difficult-to-shake stench of corruption; the first woman leader in a Muslim country, she was emblematic of the region's proclivity toward dynastic politics.







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