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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China growth could fall below 7.0% in Q2: report
by Staff Writers
Shanghai (AFP) June 13, 2012


China's economic growth could fall below 7.0 percent in the second quarter, state media on Wednesday quoted an economist at an influential government-linked think-thank as saying.

"If June economic statistics do not show an improvement, second quarter GDP growth perhaps will fall to below 7.0 percent," vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Zheng Xinli, told the overseas edition of the People's Daily newspaper.

The research institute is supervised by the National Development and Reform Commission, the government's top planner.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew an annual 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

The government has reduced its economic growth target for this year to just 7.5 percent, down from growth of 9.2 percent last year and 10.4 percent in 2010.

China has just released economic data for May which provided further evidence of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial output grew at a slower-than-expected 9.6 percent year-on-year in May, a faster clip than the previous month but still near three-year lows, the data showed.

Zheng, who is former deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Communist Party's powerful Central Committee, said China's GDP growth is typically three to five percentage points below industrial production.

China is already seeking to boost economic growth, cutting reserve requirements for banks three times since December and slashing interest rates just last week.

The government is also boosting bank lending and encouraging domestic consumption through favourable polices for selected sectors, amid weak exports to key markets like the United States and Europe.

In May, the World Bank forecast China's economy will expand 8.2 percent in 2012 but it warned policymakers must prevent an excessively abrupt slowdown.

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Japan machinery orders climb 5.7% in April
Tokyo (AFP) June 13, 2012 - Japan's core machinery orders rose by a bigger-than-expected 5.7 percent in April from the previous month, data showed Wednesday in a positive sign for the nation's hard-hit economy.

The core private-sector data, which exclude volatile demand from power companies and for ships, turned up after a 2.8 percent drop in March, according to official data from the Cabinet Office.

The market had expected a rise of 1.5 percent in April.

Machinery orders are seen as a leading indicator of corporate capital spending and watched for movements that may reflect the outlook for the broader economy.

The jump in April was a positive sign for the world's third largest economy, which has been hit hard by last year's quake-tsunami disaster, the export-damaging appreciation of the yen and financial turmoil in Europe, a major market for Japanese products.

Chisaki Masukawa, an economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research, said the figures were generally robust, supported by reconstruction-related demand after the disaster.

"(But) one area of concern is a sharp drop in orders in the auto sector, indicating that firms are cutting back on investment in anticipation of a slowdown in demand after the expiry of a subsidy programme for eco-friendly cars in the summer," she said.

Japan's April economic data has been mixed, with industrial production rising by a slower-than-expected 0.2 percent from the previous month while housing starts jumped 10.3 percent from the same month last year.



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EU to fight until 'very last moment' at Rio summit
Brussels (AFP) June 13, 2012
The EU will fight to the last for credible commitments at the Rio+20 Earth summit but it will be "very very difficult", the bloc's environment commissioner Janez Potocnik said Wednesday. The European Union will "engage till the very last moment and we are going there exactly with that commitment," Potocnik said, citing "optimism" but admitting there were no guarantees of an all-encompassing ... read more


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