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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing hits five-month high: HSBC
by Staff Writers
Shanghai (AFP) Oct 24, 2011


Manufacturing activity in China hit a five-month high in October, HSBC said Monday, easing fears of a hard landing in the world's second-largest economy.

The preliminary HSBC purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 51.1 in October, up from 49.9 in September and the first time it has gone above 50 since June, the British banking giant said in a statement.

A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests a contraction.

The final PMI reading for October is due to be released on November 1, but the preliminary data shows a pick-up in China's output and orders despite economic turmoil in the United States and Europe.

HSBC chief economist Qu Hongbin said the latest data indicated China's economy was not headed for a hard landing, despite slowing export growth and tight credit conditions aimed at curbing inflation.

"Thanks to the pick-up in new orders and output... PMI rebounded back into expansionary territory during October, marking a steady start to manufacturing activities in the fourth quarter," he said in the statement.

The PMI figures also showed a slowing in input prices, a measure of the cost of raw materials, he said, indicating government steps to rein in high inflation might be making an impact.

China's benchmark consumer price index rose 6.1 percent year-on-year in September, slowing only marginally from a 6.2 percent rise in August but retreating from a more than three-year high of 6.5 percent in July.

Tao Dong, a Hong Kong-based economist with Credit Suisse, said the PMI figures were better than expected, but cautioned that the world's second-largest economy may slow further.

"I think China's economic growth will continue to slow down, which means (further) tightening measures are rather unlikely for the time being," he told AFP.

Ren Xianfang, an economist with research firm IHS Global Insight, said the September data would provide a boost to market confidence amid fears over China's debt-laden banking system and a worsening global economic outlook.

But she said the data did not change the worsening outlook for the Chinese economy this year due to woes in the eurozone and the United States.

"China is rather unlikely to hold up well when the outlook of the eurozone and the United States, which are the country's two biggest markets, is bleak," she said.

China's economic growth eased to 9.1 percent in the third quarter from 9.5 percent in the second quarter as government efforts to tame inflation and economic turbulence in Europe and the United States curbed activity.

The Chinese commerce ministry has warned of a "severe" outlook for foreign trade in the coming months after official data showed year-on-year export growth slowed to 17.1 percent last month from 24.5 percent in August.

China is also under intense pressure from the United States to let the yuan strengthen at a faster pace.

Beijing says its currency controls are necessary to protect its manufacturing sector, which employs millions of workers, but the US Senate this month approved a bill that would punish China for alleged manipulation.

The controversial proposal has drawn a furious response from Beijing, and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said he is in favour of a "basically stable exchange rate" for the yuan.

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China jails officials over economic data leaks
Beijing (AFP) Oct 24, 2011 - China has jailed two officials from the state bank and national statistics bureau for leaking sensitive economic data to securities brokers, prosecutors said Monday

Sun Zhen, a former secretary at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and Wu Chaoming, once a researcher at the People's Bank of China, were sentenced to five and six years respectively.

Both were found guilty of revealing state secrets, said Li Zhongcheng, an official with the state prosecution service.

The cases highlight the intense secrecy with which China's ruling Communist Party treats even economic data.

The world's second-largest economy, a key driver of global growth, is closely monitored by investment banks and governments around the world and Chinese economic data often moves financial markets.

Getting the information before it was officially announced allowed companies to profit from the resulting market moves, and forced China to tighten security and alter the way it releases key data.

Li said the jailed pair leaked a slew of market sensitive information, including China's official inflation and economic growth figures, to securities firms between June 2009 and January this year.

The two men were "driven by profits" and either tipped off brokers or received fees for attending seminars and other events organised by the firms, said Du Yongsheng, spokesman for the National Administration for the Protection of State Secrets.

The statistics bureau said in July it would release economic data within 24 hours of their compilation, instead of a fixed date every month, and reduce the number of people allowed access to the information.

Neither of the men has appealed, Li said, adding that four other people involved in the case -- all employees of securities firms -- were under investigation.

"The leaking of national macroeconomic data harmed economic operations, undermined fair market competition and compromised government credibility," he said.



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Brussels (AFP) Oct 23, 2011
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