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China on full alert for swine flu

Global swine flu pandemic 'very likely': Hong Kong expert
A leading Hong Kong microbiologist on Tuesday said a global swine flu pandemic was "very likely", but said the virus did not appear to be as lethal as bird flu. Yuen Kwok-yung, head of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, said it was too early to fully establish the extent of the threat. "It is very likely we are at the beginning of a pandemic. We are near there," said Yuen, who is heading the University of Hong Kong team looking into the virus. "We have started to have some local cases -- at least in the US -- which are not directly connected to imported cases," he said, adding that could be a sign of the beginning of a pandemic. "Also, none of these cases have any contact with pigs, which means that it is being very efficiently transmitted from human to human." Yuen said it was too early to say whether the flu was severe or benign. "It may just be similar to any seasonal flu, but no one knows yet." "At least at this stage, the mortality does not seem to be as high as expected for the avian flu H5N1. That's the relatively reassuring point. But never be complacent. We just do not know what's going to happen next." Hong Kong is one of the leading centres for the treatment of infectious diseases following its experience with the deadly SARS outbreak in 2003 and its ongoing battle to control bird flu.
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) April 28, 2009
China went on full alert Tuesday to head off swine flu, with authorities ordering stepped up supervision of the world's biggest pig population as several children fell sick with suspicious symptoms.

However the World Health Organisation said there were no confirmed or even probable cases of the potentially deadly virus in China, and said the government's surveillance system was working.

"There are several suspected cases under investigation," said Hans Troedsson, the WHO representative in China.

He told a press conference that he believed a school in the northern Chinese province of Shaanxi had been closed down as one of several precautions taken by the government since global fears over swine flu emerged.

"The students had symptoms of respiratory infections," he said.

But he added that as far as he knew, none of the students at the school had been to Mexico, the epicentre of the current outbreak. He gave no details of the location of the school.

He also said it was likely they did not have swine flu.

"There are no confirmed and no probable cases in China," he said.

An official at the Shaanxi provincial health department, who declined to give her name, said she had no information on the reported incident.

Swine flu is believed to have claimed the lives of more than 150 people in Mexico and is known to have spread to the United States, Canada, Britain, Spain and New Zealand.

China has close to 450 million pigs -- half of the world's total -- according to the national meat industry body, making the Asian nation a potentially high-risk location.

China's leaders on Tuesday pledged open and quick reporting of any cases of swine flu, as they ordered the mobilisation of the nation's health system to tackle the potential crisis.

The government, heavily criticised for initially covering up the SARS epidemic in 2003, has made fighting the disease its "central task," according to a statement issued after a cabinet meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.

The State Council ordered a raft of measures including the establishment of a "direct reporting system on the epidemic leading to early discovery, early reports, early diagnosis, early quarantine and early treatment."

"As soon as cases are discovered in our borders they must be publicly announced in a timely manner," the cabinet statement said.

China initially tried to deny the existence of the deadly outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, within its borders -- acknowledged it only after the illness spilled over into other countries.

Troedsson, who met with China's health minister earlier Tuesday, said he believed the situation was different now.

"China and other countries are much better prepared than before SARS and avian influenza," he said.

The meeting chaired by Wen marked a sharp escalation in China's response on swine flu, as the situation overseas has quickly worsened.

The State Council ordered strict monitoring of people arriving in China from affected areas and strengthened supervision of the pig-raising industry, pig markets, and the import and exports of pigs.

earlier related report
Asia tightens grip against flu threat
Asia tightened its already strict measures to keep swine flu from spreading across the region Tuesday, after the World Health Organization warned of a significant increase in the risk of a pandemic.

The number of suspected cases across the region jumped, with New Zealand investigating 56 possible new infections, Australia 17 and South Korea a single case among people who had recently returned from Mexico or the United States.

Nine New Zealand high school students and their teacher had already tested positive for influenza A and were thought likely to have contracted swine flu. Tests results were expected later this week.

"It's a time for caution and concern, but not alarm," said New Zealand Health Minister Tony Ryall. Three suspected cases from a separate New Zealand school group that visited Mexico had tested negative.

But officials were still trying to trace 18 people who arrived on the same flight from Los Angeles as the main group of school children.

In neighbouring Australia, health authorities said they were investigating 17 possible cases and health officials were put on high alert.

Health Minister Nicola Roxon said clinical staff had been stationed at all international airports, while airlines operating from the Americas were required to report the health status of passengers before landing.

Most countries in the region have already increased airport checks to screen passengers arriving from affected areas and advised against non-essential travel to Mexico, where the virus has killed a suspected 152 people.

Thermal scanners have been a common feature in many Asian airports since the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003.

Japan went one step further, saying it would temporarily tighten visa restrictions for Mexican nationals as part of efforts to stop the virus entering the country and urged Japanese citizens in Mexico to return home.

It also booked 500 hotel rooms near Tokyo's Narita International Airport in case it needs them to quarantine infected travellers, Jiji Press reported.

The World Health Organization's Keiji Fukuda said a pandemic was not inevitable and that while the hike in its alert level was a "significant step towards pandemic influenza, it's also a phase which says we are not there yet".

If the world health body further increased its alert level, Japan would quarantine arrivals suspected of having the virus, as well as those who accompany them and flight attendants, for 10 days of tests, Jiji said.

Hong Kong, which was at the forefront of the SARS epidemic in 2003 and has since been on alert for bird flu, has already issued similar guidelines allowing for arrivals to be detained, as has Australia.

The first suspected case of the virus in East Asia was reported in a woman in South Korea just back from a trip to Mexico, health officials said.

Officials in Seoul said they would double stocks of Tamiflu and other anti-influenza drugs -- enough to treat five million people.

Countries including New Zealand have said contingency plans drawn up during the bird flu epidemic that reappeared in 2003 meant health authorities had plentiful stocks of anti-flu medication.

Local authorities were looking for any clusters of flu-like illness in India which, along with Thailand, said it was trying to track down an unknown number of people who had recently arrived from Mexico and the United States.

Health experts have expressed fears that the relatively low death rate and mild symptoms seen in some cases of the current strain could allow the virus to spread faster.

Taiwan's Health Minister Yeh Chin-chuan, who on Monday insisted there was no need to panic over the outbreak, which he described as a "a tropical storm emerging on the other side of the Pacific", updated his forecast.

The outbreak was "becoming a typhoon likely to approach us", he warned.

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New Human Movement Model Aids In Studying Epidemic Outbreaks
Raleigh NC (SPX) Apr 28, 2009
Researchers have developed a new statistical model that simulates human mobility patterns, mimicking the way people move over the course of a day, a month or longer.







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