ESA actively monitoring severe space weather event

by ESA Staff Writers
Paris, France (ESA) Nov 13, 2025

On 11 November 2025, an intense solar flare was observed, peaking around 10:04 UTC. Less than an hour later, a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected, with an initial speed of approximately 1500 km/s. Arrival at Earth was estimated for the evening of 12 November or the early morning of 13 November, though these timings include some uncertainty.

The resulting geomagnetic storm is severe and may affect satellites, power grids, and navigation systems, but does not pose a direct biological risk to people on Earth.

ESA is closely monitoring the event, collecting information from expert centres.

Earlier this week, two strong X-type solar flares from solar active region NOAA 14274 generated two CMEs, arriving at Earth and triggering a geomagnetic storm of intensity G4. The X5.1-class flare peaked on 11 November, accompanied by shock waves on the Sun's surface.

Major solar flares of this type can impact radio communication and satellite navigation (GNSS) applications in sun-facing regions at the time of the event. For this event, these regions were Europe, Africa, and Asia.

"Our planet was hit by two consecutive CMEs last night triggering a severe geomagnetic disturbance. We are expecting a third one to arrive later today or tomorrow. The impact of the third CME heavily depends on whether it merges with the first two or not," says Juha-Pekka Luntama, Head of ESA Space Weather Office.

"The geomagnetic storm is estimated to continue at severe level, and it may impact satellites, power grids, and navigation systems. We have observations of further CMEs erupting from the Sun, so severe space weather activity is foreseen to continue for the second half of this week."

While technological effects are concerning, Earth's atmosphere and magnetosphere provide protection for humans.

Solar storms are common near solar maximum. Although probabilities for eruptions can be forecast, exact timing and magnitude remain hard to predict. ESA maintains space weather services for industry and spacecraft operators.

Forecast accuracy is limited by uncertainty in CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm severity. To improve predictions, ESA is developing multiple new missions.

ESA's Vigil mission will observe the side of the Sun from Lagrange Point 5, providing advance warning for potentially hazardous solar events before they are visible from Earth. Vigil launches in 2031.

Current in-situ flare and CME measurements are made from Lagrange Point 1 (L1), allowing only about 20 minutes warning before a solar storm's impact. The proposed Shield mission would alert operators two and a half hours ahead, aiding critical response for infrastructure.

During a solar storm, the Sun may produce several phenomena.

A solar flare erupts, unleashing energy equivalent to a billion atomic bombs. Electromagnetic waves reach Earth in eight minutes, disrupting radio transmissions and causing errors in navigation systems.

Shortly thereafter, high-speed solar energetic particles (protons, electrons, alpha particles) arrive, posing risks to astronauts and satellites and potentially affecting electronics on the ground.

A flare can be accompanied by a CME - a large eruption of ionized gas from the Sun's outer atmosphere. A CME traveling toward Earth generates gusts and shock waves, reaching our planet in as little as 18 hours.

Arrival of a CME at Earth causes geomagnetic storms, which can disrupt compasses, induce surges in metallic structures, and cause auroras.

Currents in the upper atmosphere during storms can also swell and increase atmospheric drag on low-orbit satellites; if not compensated, satellites may leave orbit. This effect helps remove space debris, which burns up in the atmosphere.