Recent research analyzed the drivers of deforestation in 40 countries from a food system perspective. The study found that FDI and urbanization are leading causes of tree cover loss, surpassing factors like GDP growth, population increase, and exports. According to the research, FDI contributes to deforestation and biodiversity loss by promoting the "supermarketization" of global diets.
"Focusing only on exports is not going to have a major impact on tropical deforestation trends if that is the only thing we do," said Janelle Sylvester, the study's lead author and a researcher at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. "Domestic food consumption, which has changed due to FDI and urbanization, should also be recognized as a major driver of deforestation."
The study tracked tree cover loss in 40 tropical and subtropical countries from 2004 to 2021. Researchers used an advanced machine learning algorithm to analyze the links between various variables and forest loss. The findings were published in Scientific Reports on June 16.
This research is among the first to use advanced machine learning to understand regional and global drivers of deforestation from a food system perspective. It underscores the need for investors and policymakers to recognize FDI's significant role in deforestation and its broader impacts on human and planetary health.
The study highlights the importance of looking beyond food exports. Researchers considered 12 drivers encompassing food production, consumption, and distribution. They used the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to examine how different drivers affected deforestation trends. The models, constructed at both global and regional scales, showed that FDI and urban demand were major deforestation drivers, particularly in Asia and Latin America.
"This suggests that to effectively reduce deforestation, we need to focus on improving the entire food system, not just how food is produced," Sylvester said. "This study highlights the importance of addressing both local and global factors to protect forests and suggests that interventions targeting the food system could help achieve sustainable development goals."
FDI's influence on deforestation is linked to the global shift toward ultra-processed foods, which rely heavily on ingredients produced on deforested land such as palm oil, sugarcane, soy, and cereals for livestock feed. These dietary changes are closely tied to the FDI-driven "supermarketization" of food supplies, contributing to climate change, biodiversity loss, malnutrition, obesity, and type-2 diabetes.
"This research has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the leading causes of deforestation," said Augusto Castro, a co-author from the Alliance. "This is a new way of putting all the pieces of deforestation together and developing new strategies to address it."
Policymakers are encouraged to consider several measures to mitigate FDI-linked deforestation. FDI proposals should be evaluated for environmental sustainability, and incentives like tax breaks or subsidies should support investments aligned with national deforestation reduction priorities. Standards like the European Union Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products should apply to foreign investors in domestic markets, and public awareness campaigns on health and sustainability should be emphasized.
"With urbanization, we become more disconnected from our food sources and have a lesser understanding of the environmental impacts and production practices linked to the food we're eating," Sylvester said. "It's a narrative you hear a lot in developed countries, but it is happening now in low- and middle-income countries as well."
The study also touches on the broader implications of FDI on land use and deforestation. Future research should focus on how FDI affects land prices, which may rise over time, influencing land use dynamics and contributing to deforestation.
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