It may be argued that Russia failed and Israel succeeded, or that both nations failed in their longer-term strategic goals, because pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili continues to rule Georgia just as Hamas, the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance Movement, continues to run Gaza.

Indeed, Israeli military losses in Gaza were far lighter, with only 13 killed, than Russian military casualties in Georgia, and Israel did not lose any expensive bombers or other aircraft as Russia did in the brief Caucasus conflict of last August.

There were, however, striking similarities between the two conflicts. Neither Georgia's leaders, nor those of Hamas, ever believed they would face the massive and sustained military offensive that hit them. Russia and Israel both enjoyed total tactical surprise when they launched their attacks.

The leaders of both Georgia and Hamas were dealt rude shocks. The Georgians imagined, indeed, that thanks to significant infusions of modern military equipment from the United States, they would be able to blunt any Russian ground attack. Instead, their military forces were almost contemptuously swept aside by the Russian army. Hamas similarly put up a negligible military performance against the Israeli army.

Both the Georgians and Hamas believed the larger power they were taunting and defying would never dare to attack them and that even if it did, international pressure and outrage would force it to a halt within days or even hours. But both Georgia and Hamas were quickly disillusioned of this fantasy.

There was nothing the 27-nation European Union and the United States could do to slow or halt the Russian military juggernaut until the Kremlin drew its own stop lines after sweeping through one-third of the mountainous, forested former Soviet republic in the Caucasus. Israeli ground forces operated with impunity in Gaza, and the huge wave of popular demonstrations across the Arab world that Hamas had expected never materialized.

Nevertheless, although Saakashvili survived the Russia onslaught against his country and the Hamas leadership survived in Gaza, their political prospects look very different.

Saakashvili in Georgia has just lost the one really powerful friend he had in the world, strongly pro-Georgian U.S. President George W. Bush. New U.S. President Barack Obama and his incoming secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, already have made clear they want to reduce tensions with Russia and negotiate a new arms control treaty within the next year to replace START, which runs out in December.

In such a political climate, Saakashvili knows the best he can hope for is survival. The Obama administration will not push to get Georgia admitted into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as Bush unsuccessfully did. U.S. Undersecretary of State Daniel Fried, who was the enthusiastic Bush point man to embrace Georgia, will not retain his position in the new Obama administration.

Saakashvili therefore will continue to face a hostile and emboldened Russia. Hamas certainly will face a far more hostile and potentially dangerous leader in Israel if former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu wins the Israeli general election on Feb. 10, as he is widely expected to, from Labor Party leader Ehud Barak and Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni, both of whom showed indecision and confusion, along with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in leading Israel in the Gaza operations.

However, Obama and Clinton in Washington can be counted on to act forcefully to rein in any future Israeli government, even a Likud one, whereas Bush gave the Israelis a free hand. That was why Olmert and his lieutenants pulled Israeli forces out of Gaza only days before Obama took office.

(Part 2: Hamas' rising prospects and Saakashvili's growing dangers)

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