High-mountain Asia, often called the Third Pole, contains the planet's largest water reserves outside the Arctic and Antarctic. In the Pamir Mountains, glaciers had long resisted melting trends observed elsewhere. This resilience, known as the Pamir-Karakoram Anomaly, is now weakening as snowfall declines and ice melt accelerates.
The researchers established a new climate station in 2021 at 3400 meters elevation on the Kyzylsu Glacier. Combining local data with reanalysis models, they simulated glacier mass balance, snowfall, and runoff. The models consistently showed that glacier health deteriorated sharply after 2018, with increased ice melt compensating for only part of the reduced snowfall.
"Due to the general lack of data and robust future projections in the region, we can't tell yet whether this was truly the 'point of no return' for Pamir glaciers," said first author Achille Jouberton, a PhD student at ISTA. "However, it is the first study of its kind. Similar efforts will need to address these issues on a larger geographical scale."
Field expeditions since 2021 have equipped the glacier with automated monitoring systems to ensure decades-long data collection. The researchers also work closely with Tajik scientists and local shepherds, who help safeguard the instruments and share observations from the mountains.
The study underscores the critical role of glaciers in Central Asia's water supply. The Kyzylsu catchment feeds the Amu Darya, a river essential for agriculture and ecosystems across the region. While melting ice temporarily adds water, the long-term decline threatens both local livelihoods and downstream resources.
Research Report:Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs
Related Links
Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Beyond the Ice Age
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