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Gulf countries risk revenues, reputations in Middle East war

Gulf countries risk revenues, reputations in Middle East war

By Sahar Al Attar
Dubai (AFP) Mar 4, 2026
The Gulf countries have long been seen as islands of stability in the Middle East, but the war in the region could threaten their prosperity, analysts said, pointing to risks to their revenues and reputations as business havens.

Gulf countries have borne much of Tehran's response since the US and Israel launched a massive air campaign against Iran over the weekend.

The Islamic republic's retaliatory attacks have hit ports, airports, oil facilities, residential buildings and hotels along with military sites across the wealthy region of oil giants and staunch US allies.

Qatar's state-run energy firm QatarEnergy halted liquefied natural gas production following Iranian attacks on facilities at two of its main gas processing bases.

But of even greater concern is a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes -- and which Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday they had "complete control" over.

"The complete disruption to oil and gas exports, and in turn export and fiscal revenue, for Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain is obviously the most severe impact," said Justin Alexander, an economic expert on Gulf issues and director of Khalij Economics.

But top crude exporter "Saudi Arabia and the UAE can divert some of the production by pipeline to terminal beyond Hormuz", he added.

The disruption to traffic on the waterway, combined with airspace closures in certain countries, also threatens to put pressure on the Gulf countries' supply chains.

"There will be impacts to costs of imports, including foods like produce, meat and dairy," said Karen Young, director of the Program on Economics and Energy at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

"On logistics and imports of construction materials, we will likely see some impact on the costs of projects and timing of deliveries," she added.

- Disaster scenario -

The Gulf countries, whose economies mostly rely on foreign labour, were determined to avoid a regional conflict at a time when they are seeking to reduce their dependence on hydrocarbons by betting on sectors such as finance, tourism and artificial intelligence.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, its neighbour and fellow leading oil producer, are both investing heavily in data centres and companies that supply AI products, including generative models.

US tech giant Amazon, however, said this week that drone strikes damaged two of its data centres in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain, prompting some analysts to question the wisdom of setting up such sites in the Gulf.

The cancellation of thousands of flights since Saturday is also a heavy blow for the region, especially for the city of Dubai, which positions itself as a hub for the aviation sector and a major tourist destination.

The pain has been compounded as the authorities have had to dig into their pockets to deal with the thousands of tourists and travellers stranded in the country since Saturday, covering all of their accommodation expenses.

Not to mention the costs borne by governments to intercept the hundreds of missiles and drones raining down on their territory.

And "the region is bound to further increase spending on defence and the repair of targeted civilian infrastructure" at the expense of other planned expenditures, said Nasser Saidi, founder of the Dubai-based consulting firm Saidi & Associates.

For countries that are trying to present themselves as safe havens for investors, "the main concerns if the war becomes prolonged or if Iran does not stabilise after it ends is that there could be a loss of confidence and capital flight affecting bank solvency, the real estate market and other assets", Alexander said.

"However, we are not there yet," he added.

He said the Gulf countries' ability to attract investment and talent will largely depend on the outcome of the war and if it "looks like there could be future bouts of conflict with Iran".

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