The July 4 death of Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, Lebanon's most prominent Shiite cleric who was seen as a moderating influence on the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, may have bolstered the movement's militants at a critical juncture.

The new round of economic sanctions imposed on Iran in recent weeks by the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, along with a drive to shut down Iran's key trading post in Dubai through which it receives much of its contraband, have added to the tension.

Whether Iran's concerns of international isolation will mean Tehran will be inclined to prod Hezbollah into provocative actions against Israel remains to be seen.

Hezbollah's cross-border seizure of two Israeli soldiers on July 12, 2006, and killing of eight others, triggered a 34-day war in which the Shiite guerrillas fought a badly led and ill-prepared Israeli military to a standstill.

The Israelis have made little secret of their wish for a return match to hammer Hezbollah out of existence and the general feeling across the Levant is that conflict is all but inevitable.

A prime question is "When?"

In the meantime, the people of the Levant watch and wait and try to divine from the comings and goings of their leaders when the shooting might start.

Five days ago, Iranian officials said that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad planned to fly to Beirut for a summit with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and Sheik Hamad bin Khalif al-Thani, emir of the Persian Gulf state of Qatar that has leaned toward Tehran for some time, and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's charismatic secretary-general.

No firm date was set for the trip, Ahmadinejad's first visit to Lebanon, the front line against Israel, but late July or early August were mentioned. That suggested there would be no upheaval before that period.

But Tuesday, Beirut's Al-Akhbar newspaper, reported that Ahmadinejad postponed his trip until after the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. That starts Aug. 11 and ends Sept. 9, which from a religious point of view would be a more propitious time to engage in hostilities, if such is the intent.

The announcement of Ahmadinejad's unprecedented trip to the war zone brought to mind his visit to Damascus, the Syrian capital, in late February when he held what was widely seen a council of war with Assad, the only Arab state allied with Iran, and Nasrallah.

Soon after that gathering in Assad's Damascus palace, the Israelis accused Syria of supplying Hezbollah with hundreds of Scud ballistic missiles capable of hitting anywhere in the Jewish state.

That heightened the tension, although no one is really sure Hezbollah got any Scuds. It is, however, widely believed to have got Syrian M-600 missiles, which are more accurate and deadlier than the Scuds.

Nasrallah, it is said, refused to fly to Damascus in February because he feared Israeli warplanes might ambush him, as they did his predecessor.

Abbas Musawi was blown up in south Lebanon with his wife and son when his motorcade was hit by a broadside of Hellfire missiles launched from Apache helicopter gunships.

Instead, Nasrallah, who has been in hiding since 2006 after at least two Israeli attempts to kill him, reportedly was secreted into Damascus in an anonymous beat-up old clunker with two aides to avoid detection.

There have been reports that Ahmadinejad wanted to fly to Beirut aboard an aircraft with Sheik Hamad and Assad to prevent any Israeli attempt to shoot him down.

That could simply be Israeli disinformation but the region's leaders do have a penchant for assassinating each other.

Recent victims include Hezbollah's long-elusive military commander Imad Mughniyeh, blown up in Damascus in February 2008 and Hamas chieftain Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, drugged and strangled in a Dubai hotel room Jan. 19.

Both slayings were blamed on the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service.

Meantime, the Israelis say Hezbollah now has up to 45,000 missiles and rockets -- compared to 12,000 in 2006 -- with which to pulverize Israel. But that could be disinformation, too.

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