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Israel PM seeking to avoid Iran strike: analysts
by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) Sept 11, 2012

World can't ask Israel to wait if no Iran red line set: PM
Jerusalem (AFP) Sept 11, 2012 - The international community cannot ask Israel to keep waiting before acting against Iran if it has not laid down red lines to Tehran over its nuclear programme, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday.

"The world tells Israel: Wait, there's still time. And I say: wait for what? Wait until when?," Netanyahu said.

"Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran, don't have a moral right to place a red light before Israel," he said in English at a joint meeting with his Bulgarian counterpart Boyko Borisov.

Diplomacy and sanctions had not worked, and Iran was still progressing towards its objective of building an atomic weapon, he said.

"The fact is that every day that passes, Iran gets closer and closer to nuclear bombs. Now if Iran knows that there is no red line, if Iran knows that there is no deadline, what will it do?

"Exactly what it's doing: it is continuing, without any interference towards obtaining nuclear weapons capability and from there, nuclear bombs," he said.

Over the past week, the Israeli leader has repeatedly driven home the need to lay down a "clear red line" for Iran in order to avoid war.

Israel, the Middle East's sole, if undeclared, nuclear power, says a nuclear Iran would constitute an existential threat for the Jewish state and has refused to rule out a military strike to prevent it from gaining such a capability.

Washington and much of the West also believe Iran is seeking a weapons capability under the guise of a civilian nuclear programme, a charge which Tehran denies.


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's public challenge to the White House to set "red lines" for Tehran could be an attempt to back off from plans for a unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Israeli analysts said on Tuesday.

"Netanyahu has decided that he won't attack before the (US) elections because it's politically impossible because of American opposition, and it's impossible because of opposition within the Israeli establishment," said Shlomo Brom of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies.

"He's looking for a way to preserve his prestige, and the way Israeli leaders often do that is by convincing the Israeli public that they're not suckers," Brom said.

Netanyahu's insistence on red lines was meant to convince Israelis he is driving a hard bargain and not caving in to western pressure, he said.

"I think this is all intended to give Netanyahu a ladder with which to climb down from the tree," he added.

Over the past week, the Israeli leader has repeatedly driven home the need to lay down a "clear red line" for Iran -- a boundary which, if crossed, could trigger immediate tough international action such as US-led air strikes.

"The world tells Israel: Wait, there's still time. And I say: wait for what? Wait until when?" Netanyahu said on Tuesday.

"Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don't have a moral right to place a red light before Israel."

Eytan Gilboa of Bar Ilan University near Tel Aviv agrees Netanyahu and his Defence Minister Ehud Barak know they cannot make good on threats to bomb Iran without US compliance.

But rather than grandstanding for a domestic audience, Gilboa sees Netanyahu as genuinely pushing for reassurance from US President Barack Obama.

"I don't think that Israel has a military option without understandings with the United States," he told AFP.

"He is frustrated because he's not getting more explicit commitment from the United States.

"Perhaps one of the expected consequences of the verbal public exchanges is simply to get the United States to be more explicit, more precise and more committed to stopping Iran," he added.

The left-leaning Haaretz daily on Tuesday said that an unidentified senior British official recently brought "a stern message from British Prime Minister David Cameron against an uncoordinated Israeli strike on Iran at this time."

Neither the British embassy nor Netanyahu's office would comment on the report.

"The firm message of the UK envoy, together with a telephone conversation during the same period between Netanyahu and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and public remarks by high-ranking US officials in recent weeks have affected Netanyahu's and Barak's attitude to the Iran issue," the paper said.

"The combined weight of the messages coming from Western powers seems to have cooled the two men's enthusiasm for launching an uncoordinated attack on Iran."

Netanyahu believes a nuclear-armed Iran would pose an existential threat to Israel, but his repeated calls for the international community to establish a clear red line -- widely understood as a message to Washington -- on Monday appeared to fall on deaf ears.

"The president has said unequivocally he will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters.

"We are absolutely firm about the president's commitment here, but it is not useful to be parsing it, to be setting deadlines one way or the other, red lines," she said, promising "intensive consultations with Israel."

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also dismissed such a move.

"We're not setting deadlines. We're watching very carefully about what they do," she told Bloomberg radio on Sunday.

Nevertheless, says Tel Aviv University's Mark Heller, Netanyahu seems to believe that piling pressure on Obama could pay off, especially with presidential elections fast approaching.

"He wants to try his hand at pushing him in that direction and probably thinks the campaign season is as good an opportunity as any to do that," Heller told AFP.

"I think he would much prefer that the Americans got Iran to back off rather than leaving it to Israel."

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Russia, China to join Iran censure move: diplomats
Vienna (AFP) Sept 11, 2012 - Western nations have convinced Russia and China to join them in censuring Iran at a meeting of the UN atomic watchdog over the Islamic republic's nuclear programme, diplomats told AFP Tuesday.

The United States, Britain, France and Germany have persuaded Moscow and Beijing, seen as softer on Iran, to express "serious concern" at a gathering of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday, one envoy said.

It remained unclear, however, whether the text, which two others envoys said the six powers were very close to agreeing after days of haggling, would be a statement or a more serious "resolution" to go before IAEA governors.

Washington was "looking for a very strong signal of support from the board for the works that the IAEA is doing and an expression of deep concern about Iran's nuclear activities," said State Department official Victoria Nuland.

"We're expecting some sort of a conclusion from that meeting tomorrow," she told reporters.

The IAEA's latest report on August 30 said Iran had continued to defy multiple UN Security Council resolutions to suspend uranium enrichment by doubling capacity at its underground enrichment facility at Fordo.

Enriched uranium can be used for nuclear power generation or medical purposes but also, when highly purified, in the fissile core of an atomic bomb. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful.

The IAEA report added extensive Iranian activity at the Parchin military base, where it suspects Tehran conducted past nuclear weapons research, had "significantly hampered" inspectors' ability to inspect the site.

IAEA head Yukiya Amano told the 35-nation board on Monday that Iran had to allow access to Parchin "without further delay" and that a failure in a string of meetings with Iran was "frustrating."

Nuland added meanwhile that the international community was looking "at ways that they can up the pressure on Iran, including through sanctions."

And she insisted sanctions were biting.

"In just a year Iran's oil production has dropped some 40 percent from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2011 to 1.5 million barrels as of this June," Nuland told journalists.

"So that is the equivalent of about $9 billion in lost revenue per quarter. So this work that the international community is doing to pressure Iran is having an effect, and we need to keep it up."



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NUKEWARS
If Iran builds bomb, US has a year to act: Panetta
Washington (AFP) Sept 11, 2012
The United States would have about a year to take action if Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Tuesday, despite urgent warnings from Israel that time is running out to prevent Tehran from getting the bomb. The Pentagon chief told "CBS This Morning" that it would take Iran some time to construct a nuclear device once the Tehran leadership chose to go a ... read more


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