Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding to comments by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres criticizing Moscow's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, repeated assertions that the terms of the deal related to the export of Russian products were not being properly fulfilled.
"Indeed, Mr. Guterres' letter once again outlined a certain plan of action and a promise that one day it would be possible to fulfill the Russian part of these agreements," he said. "Unfortunately, at the moment it is impossible to return to this deal because it is not being implemented."
Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin has "made it clear that Russia is ready to immediately resume the deal as soon as it is executed."
Guterres said Monday that the termination of the grain deal would have far-reaching consequences under which "the most vulnerable will pay the highest price" as he urged Russia to return to the agreement.
The Russian government withdrew from the Initiative on July 17 and has since launched a series of sustained strikes on Ukrainian ports and grain storage facilities that have destroyed a total of 60,000 tons of grain that were slated for export, according to Ukrainian officials.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Department, the GUR, said Tuesday it obtained a document stating that Russia took actions, including targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure, as "part of a single pre-developed plan" to disrupt the agreement."
"In general, the text of the document is devoted to the techniques that were employed to impede the implementation of the grain initiative and ultimately led to the termination of the agreement," the GUR said.
According to the GUR, Russia was able to "effectively restrain the ships heading to Ukraine ports and significantly limited the volume of food exports from Ukraine, which in general prevented Kyiv from exporting about 20 million tons of cargo."
"The attempts by Ukrainians to use the Black Sea initiative to continue the so-called 'Grain from Ukraine' program with the involvement of ships chartered along the line of the World Food Program have been stopped. The registration for such vessels took place only after the submission of written commitments not to participate in such actions," the document stated, according to the GUR.
Britain's ambassador to the United Nations, Barbera Woodward, said Tuesday that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak shared intelligence with his Ukrainian counterparts suggesting Russia may expand its targeting of exports to civilian shipping.
"The Russian military may expand their targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities further, to include attacks against civilians shipping in the Black Sea. Our information also indicates that Russia has laid additional sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports. We agree with the U.S. assessment that this is a coordinated effort to justify and lay blame on Ukraine for any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea," Woodward said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he spoke with Sunak about Russian attacks against the port city of Odessa.
Record grain harvest eyed as market under pressure
Paris (AFP) July 25, 2023 -
The world is heading for a record grain harvest in the 2023-2024 season thanks to gains for maize and rice, but the market remains under pressure thanks to El Nino and risks due to the war in Ukraine.
The International Grain Council (IGC), which includes both major producer and consumer nations, now forecasts 2.3 billion tonnes of grains excepting rice, slightly higher than the 2021-2022 season.
Maize production continues to rise, with a 5.5 percent rise to 1.2 billion tonnes, thanks to more acreage in the United States and a record harvest expected in Brazil.
The IGC expects the production of rice, the top grain consumed by people, to rise by 2.5 percent to 527 million tonnes.
But the wheat harvest is expected to come in at 784 million tonnes. That is stable in comparison to the last five years, but a reduction of 2.4 percent from last year when Russia and Australia had bumper harvests.
- Hard time for hard wheat -
"The pressure on wheat is due to the consumption forecast which is 20 million tonnes more than production," said Damien Vercambre, a trader at Inter-Courtage commodities brokerage.
Demand for maize is even stronger, with consumption up by 30 million tonnes over the past year, but is covered by production.
The increase is essentially for animal feed and is a sign of "the return of economic growth in Asia, where people eat more meat when their income permits," said Vercambre, but he noted the uncertainty around China's recovery.
The pressure on the wheat market is due to the level of stocks.
According to the latest monthly report from the US Department of Agriculture, wheat stocks at major exporters are roughly 55 million tonnes.
This is a ten-year low and output hasn't risen much in the past three years, noted Sebastien Poncelet, a grain specialist at Agritel agricultural information service.
Added to this are concerns about how weather may affect output as well as geopolitical risks, with the grain deal which allowed Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea having expired and Russia targeting the country's grain exporting infrastructure, including on the Danube.
"The situation in Ukraine is stirring up concern in importing nations, which could feel the need to build up stocks" and which would add to food price inflation, said Poncelet.
The situation in the United States is improving after a severe drought.
"The driest area now is the hard wheat areas in Canada, which export five million tonnes annually, or more than 60 percent of the world market," said Poncelet.
Hard wheat is prized for baking bread.
- Ample rice stocks -
In Asia, analysts are keeping a close eye on the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is generally associated with a rise in global temperatures but for the moment is not expected to have a major impact on rice.
"The monsoons arrived normally, which allowed planting the crops in good conditions," said Patricio Mendez del Villar, an economist who specialises in rice at CIRAD, a French governmental agency for agricultural research and international development.
But unexpectedly, India, the world's top rice exporter, banned exports of non-basmati white rice -- which accounts for around a quarter of its total.
The move was made "ensure adequate availability" and "allay the rise in prices in the domestic market," India's consumer affairs and food ministry said.
The move risks triggering price increases elsewhere when world prices are already up 30 percent from last year and despite the fact that Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan could compensate for the reduced Indian exports, said Mendez del Villar.
One comforting element is that rice stocks are ample at 37 percent of annual consumption, compared to 25 percent during the 2008 crisis, when prices more than quadrupled in the space of a few months.
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