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Launch boosts NKorea missile programme, security threat limited

AFP file image.
by Staff Writers
Seoul (AFP) April 5, 2009
Sunday's rocket launch will give North Korea's missile programme a big boost if proven to have been successful but it does not immediately make the world a more dangerous place, analysts say.

The nuclear-armed communist North said the launch successfully put into orbit a communications satellite which is now broadcasting songs in praise of its past and present revolutionary leaders.

The United States said it used a Taepodong-2 -- a three-stage missile capable of reaching Alaska or Hawaii at maximum range -- as the launch vehicle.

Washington and other critics say the satellite launch was cover for a ballistic missile test which was illegal under UN resolutions.

Tokyo said the first booster stage was believed to have dropped west of Japan and the second stage into the Pacific Ocean.

The Seoul government said it was too early to say whether a satellite was launched, although one expert said it probably was.

"Judging from the trajectory, the rocket was apparently used to put a satellite into orbit as the North has claimed," said Baek Seung-Joo of the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses.

"Today's launch should be called a success, especially when we compare it with the 2006 test," he told AFP. The first Taepodong-2 test in July 2006 failed after 40 seconds when the rocket blew up.

"This is a big step forward for the North's missile technology," Baek said. It will certainly help attract foreign customers who want to buy its missiles."

In comments before the launch, Christian Le Miere, Jane's Intelligence Review editor, said a successful three-stage launch would be "a major step forward" -- the first demonstration that the North can develop an inter-continental missile.

However, Le Miere told AFP-TV, the launch would not show that the North can deliver a warhead on top of the rocket.

Expert David Wright, in an article in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, also said a successful satellite launch "wouldn't necessarily demonstrate the ability to launch a nuclear warhead to intercontinental range.

"Modifications to increase the capability of the launcher pose both material and manufacturing challenges that North Korea may have yet to overcome."

The International Crisis Group (ICG), in a report last week, said even a successful test-launch would only slightly heighten security risks.

The Brussels-based group urged the world not to over-react, saying any "overblown" response could wreck nuclear disarmament talks and strengthen hardliners in Pyongyang.

It said the Taepodong-2 missile does not pose a significantly increased risk to Japan, since the North's tested and apparently reliable Rodong missile can already carry a nuclear warhead as far as Tokyo.

The report quoted intelligence sources as saying such warheads are believed to have been assembled for the Rodong.

"The Taepodong-2 could possibly reach Alaska but the likelihood of such a strike is negligible, since the North knows it would be devastated in any response," the ICG said.

"The launch of a Taepodong-2 also takes weeks to prepare; in a time of considerable tensions the missile could be destroyed on the (launch) pad."

Local experts said last week the launch was likely to succeed due to technical cooperation with Iran, which launched its own communications satellite on February 2 with a domestically-made rocket.

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North Korea launch called 'reckless', 'provocative'
Tokyo (AFP) April 5, 2009
North Korea's rocket launch Sunday rattled all of East Asia and US President Barack Obama led global condemnation of what he called an attempt to provoke trouble.







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