The latest report from Novaspace, a merger of Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners, titled Prospects for Maritime Satellite Communications, indicates a significant rise in the use of Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) solutions for maritime communications. The market share of NGSO solutions is projected to jump from 20% in 2023 to 90% by 2033. The report shows that the number of vessels using at least one satellite communication service reached 40,600 in 2023, with projections to more than double to approximately 90,000 vessels by 2033.
The Novaspace report highlights that large vessel operators, initially hesitant to rely solely on NGSOs for connectivity, are increasingly adopting a hybrid approach. This involves using Geostationary Orbit (GEO) solutions alongside NGSO services, temporarily increasing their satcom budgets in 2023. However, costs are expected to stabilize as satcom ownership expenses decrease.
Bandwidth usage has surged over the past year, mainly due to Starlink's market entry, and is expected to grow significantly from 138 Gbps in 2023 to 1.7 Tbps by 2033, representing a 13-fold increase. The reliance on GEO capacity as the primary communication method will decrease as vessels shift to NGSO for their main bandwidth requirements. Consequently, NGSO capacity's market share is projected to rise from 66% in 2023 to 96% by 2033.
Advanced NGSO systems are predicted to pressure the current ecosystem, leading to lower capacity prices. These new systems will vastly increase capacity supply, allowing for higher capacity usage while offsetting price reductions. Operator revenues are expected to grow from just under $620 million in 2023 to approximately $1.14 billion by 2033, with a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the decade.
Service revenues in the maritime market are also anticipated to increase from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $3 billion by 2033. This growth is driven by the rising number of VSAT-equipped vessels and higher average revenue per user (ARPU) in specific sub-verticals. The market share of service revenue generated by NGSOs is expected to rise from 17% in 2023 to 87% by 2033.
"The maritime satcom market continued to be highly dynamic in 2023 with the impact of Starlink's market disruption was felt across the various sub-segments and expected to continue throughout 2024," said Vishal Patil, Novaspace consultant and the report's editor. "While many vessel operators now have first-hand experience with Starlink services, several other suppliers are set to follow, including OneWeb during 2024, which will further accelerate the global adoption of NGSO services."
Research Report:Prospects for Maritime Satellite Communications report (12th edition)
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