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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: Another lousy jobs report
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Jun 1, 2012

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

The U.S. economy added only 69,000 jobs in May -- about half of what is needed to keep up with natural population growth. The unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent.

In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression, nearly the entire reduction in unemployment since October 2009 has been accomplished through a significant drop in the percentage of adults working or looking for work. Some of these folks returned to the labor market in May. Consequently, unemployment ticked up 1-10th of a percentage point.

Growth slowed to 1.9 percent in the first quarter from 3 percent the previous period, and was largely sustained by consumers taking on more car and student loans, business investments in equipment and software and some inventory build. The housing market is improving and that should lift second quarter residential construction a bit but, overall, the economy and jobs growth should remain too slower to genuinely dent unemployment.

The May jobs report indicates growth could be even slower in the second quarter and the economy is dangerously close to stalling and falling into recession.

Manufacturing added 13,000 jobs. Other big gainers were healthcare, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing.

Construction lost about 28,000 jobs and other big losers were leisure and hospitality and state and local governments.

In other sectors, jobs gains were weak or small numbers of jobs were lost.

Gains in manufacturing production haven't instigated stronger improvements in employment largely because so much of the growth is focused in high-value activity. Assembly work, outside the auto patch, remains handicapped by the exchange rate situation with the Chinese yuan.

Recent moves by China to further weaken its currency and to close its markets to stimulate its own flagging demand indicate matters will get worse without a substantive response from Washington. Also, concerns about health insurance costs, once Obamacare is fully implemented, are discouraging employers.

The economic crisis in Europe and mounting problems in China's housing and banking sectors continue to instigate worries among U.S. businesses about a second major recession and these discourage new hiring. The U.S. economy continues to expand albeit moderately but is quite vulnerable to shock waves from crises in European and Asia.

Factoring in those discouraged adults and others working part time for lack of full time opportunities, the unemployment rate is about 14.8 percent. Adding college graduates in low-skill positions, like counterwork at Starbucks, and the unemployment rate is likely closer to 18 percent.

Prospects for lowering those dreadful statistics remain slim. The economy must add 13 million jobs over the next three years -- 362,000 each month -- to bring unemployment down to 6 percent.

Growth in the range of 4-5 percent is needed to get unemployment down to 6 percent over the next several years. In 2011, the economy grew only 1.7 percent but that is expected to expand less than 2.5 percent in 2012.

Growth is weak and jobs are in jeopardy because temporary tax cuts, stimulus spending, large federal deficits, expensive-but-ineffective business regulations and costly healthcare mandates don't address structural problems holding back dynamic growth and jobs creation -- the huge trade deficit and dysfunctional energy policies.

Oil and trade with China account for nearly the entire $600 billion trade deficit. Dollars sent abroad that don't return to purchase U.S. exports, are lost purchasing power. Consequently, the U.S. economy is expanding at 2 percent a year instead of the 5 percent pace that is possible after emerging from a deep recession and with such high unemployment.

Without prompt efforts to produce more domestic oil, redress the trade imbalance with China, relax burdensome business regulations, and curb healthcare mandates and costs, the U.S. economy cannot grow and create enough jobs.

(Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and a widely published columnist.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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Jobs-short Spanish town to build on 'paradise' beach
Madrid (AFP) June 3, 2012 - A jobs-starved town in southern Spain has sparked uproar by agreeing on a scheme to build 350 homes and a batch of hotels with 1,400 rooms on unspoiled land along a "paradise" beach.

On windy days, the colourful sails of wind- and kite-surfers dot the horizon beyond the pristine, sands by the small Andalusian town of Tarifa.

In the distance you make out the coast of Morocco.

Just across a small road running behind the beach, wild grasses grow, dotted with just a few homes, camping grounds and small hotels.

This is the site the town hall has chosen for the hotel and housing project: a total 84,000 square metres (904,000 square feet) in construction on an area of 70 hectares (170 acres).

The mayor, Juan Andres Gil Garcia, says it will help the economy in a region with a 33-percent unemployment rate, the highest in Spain, which in turn has the highest in Europe.

One reason unemployment is so high however is because a Spanish real-estate burst, leaving parts of the country marred by vast tracts of unsold property.

Green groups and beach-goers are outraged by the latest plan.

"It's crazy, they are going to destroy a paradise," said 37-year-old Noelia Jurado, a member of the citizens group Save Valdevaqueros.

The lobby group was set up after the town council voted to clear the project, which still needs final approval from the regional government of Andalusia.

Details of the scheme, approved by the right and the Socialists, with only the ecological-communist Izquierda Unida party against, have yet to be revealed to the residents.

"It is all very opaque," Noelia said.

She is not alone. The group's Facebook page has 11,000 members, and dozens of people have posted holiday snaps of the beach on the online edition of leading daily El Pais, which opened a dedicated area.

"Please, don't destroy it," said one reader who sent in a picture of three young girls sitting on a dune dominating the beach.

The indignation is also a symptom of the damage done to Spain's coastline in decades of unrestrained construction.

A 2008 property crash plunged Spain into economic and financial crisis, and analysts estimate there are now a million new homes unsold.

In the past 20 years, Spain has lost coastline equal to eight football fields a day to construction, according to Greenpeace.

"It is incredible that the public authorities are still launching this kind of project when the economic model is obsolete," said the group's coastline protection official, Pilar Marcos.

Until now, Tarifa's main beach has been spared in part because of a wind that discourages sun-seekers.

But elsewhere in Andalusia the damage widespread, symbolised by the hell of a huge hotel on the beach at Algarrobico, at the gateway of a natural desert park.

Despite repeated demolitions orders from the courts, some residents still back it in the hope it will create jobs.

In Tarifa, the major is stung by the reaction to the town's new building project.

"This is modern town planning, nothing like the excessive construction along our coasts from decades ago," said the mayor on the town hall's Internet site, which stresses that the scheme only allows one-storey homes and limits hotels to three floors.

Most importantly, it would create jobs.

Opposing the construction is against residents' interests, he said. "It is the worst thing they could do to us."

Defenders of the beach are unconvinced.

The hotels and homes "will never fill up because the best publicity for Tarifa is its untouched beach," said Greenpeace's Pilar Marcos.

Besides, said Noelia Jurado of Save Valdevaqueros, "there are still a huge number of new homes in Tarifa that have been empty for four years."



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