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'Rookie' Trump must fall into line: China media
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Dec 6, 2016


Five questions about Trump and China
Beijing (AFP) Dec 6, 2016 - Beijing was caught off guard this week by Donald Trump's Twitter tirade against its currency, trade, and South China Sea policies.

Here are answers to some of the questions surrounding a potentially explosive relationship between the US president-elect and the world's second largest economy.

- What's the big deal? -

China detests unpredictability.

Its leaders have spent decades carefully constructing a relationship with the US where neither side is too critical of the other, despite their very obvious differences.

Trump threw a curveball by speaking to the president of Taiwan over the weekend -- and referring to her by her title. Beijing insists the island is a renegade province, not a country.

He then lobbed another firecracker with his outburst on Twitter in which he called out Chinese military expansionism, and accused China of fiddling its exchange rate.

While Trump made similar attacks on the campaign trail, many expected him to moderate his rhetoric post-election. The Twitter barrage seemed to have demolished those expectations.

- How has China reacted? -

Quietly, at least for now.

China's foreign ministry repeatedly deflected or downplayed reporters' questions Monday. But the shock seemed to wear off a little Tuesday, as state media trotted out attacks on Trump as a "diplomatic rookie". However, most criticism appeared in English-language or overseas-focused media, suggesting the leadership is still weighing its domestic response.

- Can China hit back? -

Of course -- it could make military or trade moves intended to cow Taiwan -- but at the moment caution prevails.

On its front page, the state-run China Daily newspaper advocated a "wait-and-see approach", while Chinese analysts have emphasised that the government's options are limited because Trump has not yet taken office, and his stances could still soften.

- What is Trump up to? -

Much of the initial American reaction to Trump's conversation with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen assumed it was improvised or accidental.

Reports now suggest the call was long-planned by both sides.

But whether Trump wants a wholesale change in US policy on Taiwan is still unclear.

Politics analyst Trey McArver said whoever's idea it was, the call shows "the only thing that is certain is that we are in a period of deep uncertainty".

- What comes next? -

All eyes in China -- or at least in the Communist Party leadership -- are on Trump's picks for Secretary of State and ambassador to China.

On Tuesday, the billionaire businessman is scheduled to meet Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, who has personal ties to China's president Xi Jinping and is reportedly a candidate to become the top US diplomat in Beijing. Such a choice would lighten the mood in the People's Republic.

For Secretary of State, options range from John Bolton -- perceived to be a hardliner on China -- to Obama's former ambassador to Beijing Jon Huntsman, who speaks Mandarin and has an adopted Chinese daughter.

Donald Trump is a "diplomatic rookie" who must learn not to cross Beijing on issues like trade and Taiwan, Chinese state media said Tuesday, warning America could pay dearly for his naivety.

Trump's protocol-shattering call with Taiwan's president and a subsequent Twitter tirade against Beijing's policies could risk upending the delicate balance between the world's two largest economies, major media outlets said.

"Provoking friction and messing up China-US relations won't help 'make America great again'", said a front-page opinion piece in the overseas edition of Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily.

The nationalist Global Times newspaper's Chinese edition also ran a page-one story on Trump's "inability to keep his mouth shut", damning his "provocation and falsehoods".

Trump fired off two tweets on Sunday blasting China for devaluing its currency, taxing US imports, and building military installations in the South China Sea.

The comments followed criticism of Trump in US and Chinese media for taking a congratulatory phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, a move that flew in the face of nearly 40 years of diplomatic protocol and raised questions about whether the president-elect intends to pursue a hard line against Beijing.

Official reaction from Beijing has been muted, but China often uses state media to telegraph its policy positions, sometimes employing rhetoric beyond the diplomatic pale.

The Global Times' English-language edition filled its opinion pages with editorials slamming the president-elect.

The often brittle, provocative publication is not considered "official" media, but has close ties to the ruling party.

Noting that Sino-US relations had reached a delicate equilibrium thanks to years of careful management, an editorial in the paper warned that Trump "can make a lot of noise but that does not exempt him from the rules of the major power game," adding that he "doesn't have sufficient resources" to be provocative with China.

"Trump's China-bashing tweet is just a cover for his real intent, which is to treat China as a fat lamb and cut a piece of meat off it," it said.

"He is trying to pillage other countries for US prosperity," it warned, but instead he will unwittingly "smash the current world economic order" of which the US is the "biggest beneficiary."

A companion commentary warned that Trump "will in time learn not to cross China", threatening "a fierce competition" with Beijing if the US increases arm sales to Taiwan.

It was illustrated by an editorial cartoon showing an eagle throwing pebbles at a large, scowling panda.

Meanwhile the English-language China Daily newspaper warned that "diplomatic rookie" Trump needs to moderate his behaviour or he will create "costly troubles for his country".

"As president-elect, Trump can expect some forgiveness even when he is shooting from the hip. But things will be different when he becomes president."

- 'Sobering' -

During the presidential campaign, Trump frequently targeted China for fiscal and trade policies that he claimed cost the US millions of jobs.

While China seems to have hoped the rhetoric was more bark than bite, inital signs suggests he will continue to take an aggressive line on the world's second largest economy.

"If Trump continues talking this way after taking office... China is going to have to make some adjustments in its thinking," Jia Qingguo, professor at Peking University, told AFP, calling the comments "sobering".

Trump's decision to speak with Taiwan's president seems to have particularly rattled Beijing, which regards the democratically-ruled island of 23 million a renegade province, though it has its own legal and military systems and has not been under Beijing's control for more than 60 years.

"This call was no accident," said Trey McArver, analyst for China Politics Weekly. "It is clear that Trump associates, including chief of staff Reince Priebus, have had repeated contact with Tsai and her people in recent months and were well aware of what they were doing."


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