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Storm-plagued Mexico faces the music as warming continues apace
Storm-plagued Mexico faces the music as warming continues apace
By Yussel GONZALEZ
Mexico City (AFP) June 19, 2025

In the scant seven years from 2017, when "Despacito" was a reggaeton smash hit, the average temperature in continental Mexico rose nearly 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.8 Fahrenheit).

This rate of warming was almost twice as fast as in the 47 years from 1977, when "Hotel California" by The Eagles was a chart topper for a different generation.

Scientist Francisco Estrada Porrua leads a project using musical, cultural and historical reference points to try and bring home to Mexicans "the velocity of the change we are living through" due to global warming.

The message is dire. Mexico is warming faster than the rest of the planet, and at an ever increasing rate.

"Nearly 30 percent of all warming (in Mexico) occurred in the last seven years," Estrada, a researcher with the National Autonomous University of Mexico's PINCC climate change program, told AFP.

Measured on its own, Mexico has already exceeded the targeted 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) threshold for average global warming from pre-industrial levels.

Part of the reason is quicker-than-average warming of the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to its location and semi-enclosed shape, according to studies.

Here are excerpts from an interview Estrada gave to AFP as Mexico dealt with the fallout of Hurricane Erick, the latest major storm to hit its shores as climate change makes hurricanes stronger and more frequent.

- What is the trend for Mexico? -

We are warming up significantly faster than the global average. The global warming rate is 2.0 degrees (Celsius) per century, and in Mexico, we have around 3.2 degrees per century.

We have regions in Mexico, such as the north, where warming rates reach 6.0 degrees per century -- three times higher than the global average.

What does this mean? We face a greater risk, and we are going to see, or are already seeing, more significant impacts in our country.

- What are these impacts? -

The probability of extreme precipitation and temperature events in some regions of the country has multiplied between three and five times.

The phenomenon of rapid intensification is illustrated by Hurricane Otis in 2023, which went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within a span of 12 hours, causing catastrophic impacts on the coast of Guerrero (a state in the south).

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on hurricanes and tropical storms are now so significant that they are detectable... also in associated economic losses.

- What about daily life? -

We are seeing this in heat waves. I never used air conditioning in my car, it wasn't necessary. But now, during this (summer) season, every time I drive, I have to use it.

This illustrates how energy demands can also change.

In addition to global climate change, which is caused by global greenhouse gas emissions, large cities have additional local warming caused by urbanization.

When a place that was once a natural landscape is urbanized, it alters the energy balance, increasing temperatures and changing the climate -- not only the temperature, but also precipitation and winds.

For example, in the case of Mexico City, we have about 3.0 degrees (Celsius) more due to this localized warming, known as the urban heat island effect.

So, combining local warming with global warming, imagine the impact this has on everyone's lives.

In a few years, for example, we won't be able to be in our homes without air conditioning, and we'll experience greater impacts on health and work productivity, among other things.

- Any other concerns? -

About 27 million people depend in some way on rain-fed maize farming.

We are already seeing yield losses of between five and 20 percent in some states of the country (due to drought).

By the end of the century, there are places where we could lose up to 80 percent of those yields.

One has to start imagining what the country would look like with those changes in this and other important crops.

Climate change will reduce the ability to produce food in our country and, if we do not prepare, this could have significant implications in other areas such as inflation, food security, social instability and migration.

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