While many voters are concerned about domestic issues such as sluggish economic growth and energy security, the threat from China -- which has repeatedly vowed to seize control of the island it considers a wayward province -- looms large over the campaign's final days.
The contest also kicks off a year in which dozens of countries will be holding elections of their own and is being framed by front-runner candidate Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party as a referendum on democracy itself.
"I am confident that you will see the robustness of Taiwan's democracy," Lai, who is Taiwan's vice president, said at a news conference earlier this week. "Our people stand firmly with democracy even as we stand at the forefront of defending our values against authoritarianism."
Outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen took a strong stance against Beijing's pressure and moved closer to Washington over her eight years in office, with the island becoming one of the biggest flashpoints in U.S.-China relations.
Lai has said he will maintain the cross-strait status quo while continuing to build up Taiwan's defense capabilities and enhancing partnerships with like-minded democracies around the world. He also argues there is no need to pursue formal independence, saying that Taiwan is a "sovereign, independent country."
Lai's main opponent, Hou You-ih of the traditionally Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party, or KMT, argues that better relations with China will benefit Taiwan's economy. His campaign has warned that a DPP victory would heighten the risk of war with its giant neighbor, a message that Beijing has echoed.
A Lai victory would create "a dangerous situation in the Taiwan Strait," a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Thursday.
"Taiwan would be farther and farther away from peace and prosperity and closer and closer to war and recession," spokesman Chen Binhua said.
At the same time, Hou has looked to maintain more of a distance from Beijing than past KMT leaders, including former President Ma Ying-jeou.
"Former President Ma had many positions, and some of those views are different from mine," Hou said at a press conference Thursday. "During my term, I will not touch on the issue of unification."
However, Fang-long Shih, co-director of the Taiwan research program at the London School of Economics, said a KMT victory would eventually bring Taiwan under China's influence.
"Supporters of the KMT say the choice is peace in the Taiwan Strait versus war," she told UPI. "This is wrong. The choice is either unification or non-unification" with China.
While Lai has maintained a steady lead, polls have been close in the run-up to the election. A third candidate, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People's Party, is a wildcard with a huge social media following. He is looking to carve a middle path between the establishment parties and offers a new voice that has resonated with younger voters.
At a DPP campaign rally on Thursday evening, speakers praised the past eight years of their party's rule and called for a continuation of Tsai's policies, while many supporters framed the election as an existential choice for Taiwan's future.
"We want to protect Taiwan," 67-year-old rally-goer Huang Chih-chen said. "We are different from China. We don't belong to them. We are already an independent country."
First-time voter Yi Hsien-ling, 21, pointed to China's crackdown on Hong Kong after pro-democracy protests in 2019 as a warning against growing closer to Beijing.
"We have to protect our democracy," she said. "We don't want to be a second Hong Kong."
The DPP and independent research groups have accused China of meddling in the upcoming elections by financing and coordinating online disinformation campaigns.
Beijing has also kept up a steady stream of incursions by fighter jets, naval ships and, more recently, large balloons in what Taipei calls "gray zone" warfare meant to strain the island's defense capabilities and wear down its morale.
China "will use any means to influence Taiwan's elections," Marco Ho, a security specialist who co-founded the civil defense training group Kuma Academy, said.
"They are not looking for a full-scale military invasion in the short-term," Ho told UPI. "For them, the political way is the best strategy."
More than 19.5 million people are eligible to vote Saturday, according to Taiwan's Central Election Commission. In addition to the presidential and vice presidential races, 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament, are also up for grabs.
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