The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development slightly downgraded its growth forecast for all its regions in 2026, which for the first time takes into account some sub-Saharan African nations.
However, it has revised upwards its expectations for growth this year.
"The first pressure point everybody has been thinking about is access to the US market," EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told AFP.
The EBRD forecasts growth of 3.1 percent in 2025 across its regions of investment, slightly up from a May projection of 3.0 percent.
However, the increase to 3.3-percent growth expected next year is weaker than it initially forecast, dragged down by Romania and the Balkan countries.
The EBRD was founded in 1991 to help former Soviet bloc nations embrace free-market economies, before extending its reach to the Middle East and North Africa.
On Thursday it forecast Ukraine's economy to slow more than expected this year amid its war with Russia -- with growth of 2.5 percent compared with the bank's previous estimate of 3.3 percent.
The EBRD forecast for Russia's GDP this year stood at a downwardly revised 1.3 percent.
"Ukraine's economic outlook is highly uncertain, depending on the war's course, energy security and continued international support," the lender said.
As a whole, exports from EBRD countries to the US grew in the first quarter of the year in anticipation of President Donald Trump's tariffs kicking in, before declining in the second quarter.
"But these averages hide a lot of differences between countries," Javorcik said.
For example, Kazakhstan saw increased exports of silver and gold bullion to the United States, while Hungary benefited from shipments of pharmaceuticals and computers.
The institution cited pressures related also to increased competition from China in export markets and limited fiscal headroom in government budgets.
Economic grouping the OECD on Tuesday said the global economy would grow this year more than expected after absorbing the shock of Trump's tariffs, cautioning however that the full impact remained uncertain.
Related Links
Global Trade News
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
