Shipping drives over 80% of global trade, and interruptions to port networks can reverberate through global supply chains. However, despite their potential impact, tsunamis are often overlooked in port infrastructure planning and risk assessment. This gap stems from the rarity of such events and the lack of sophisticated tools to measure their risks accurately.
To address this issue, researchers have developed a framework to assess tsunami risks to seaports and their broader implications for the global port network. This framework evaluates economic losses caused by port disruptions and analyzes how these disturbances cascade across shipping routes and unaffected ports.
The study, led by Constance Chua, a postdoctoral researcher at Tohoku University's International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), also included contributions from Professor Fumihiko Imamura, Associate Professor Anawat Suppasri, and Professor Adam Switzer of Nanyang Technological University. "We applied our framework to the South China Sea, focusing on a potential tsunami scenario triggered by a rupture along the Manila Trench," says Chua. "We also incorporated tsunami conditions under future sea level rises."
The research team analyzed 104 scenarios with input from international experts, including Dr. Tanghua Li from the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Research Professor Qiang Qiu from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Professor Linlin Li from Sun Yat-sen University. By incorporating cutting-edge models and data on various hazards, the team created realistic simulations of tsunami impacts.
Key findings revealed that a tsunami from the Manila Trench could damage up to 11 seaports under current conditions, with that number rising to 15 ports by 2100 due to sea-level rise. Port closures in the most affected areas could extend beyond 200 days. Notably, the severity of economic losses depended more on annual cargo volume than on closure duration. Ports like Hong Kong, Manila, and Kaohsiung were identified as the most economically vulnerable.
According to Chua, "Since South China hosts some of the busiest ports and sea lanes, the number of disrupted shipping routes would far exceed previous tsunami events. Given the lack of consideration given to tsunami impacts, our study could help stakeholders prepare for such events."
Research Report:An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels
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