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DEMOCRACY
Walker's World: Europe's voters revolt
by Martin Walker
Munich, Germany (UPI) May 14, 2012


The anti-austerity revolt of European voters continued Sunday when electors in a key German province gave Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats just 28 percent of the vote, the party's lowest perentage since 1948.

This is a grim time to be in office in Europe. Voters have turned out governments in Britain, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, France and Greece. And while Merkel remains in office at the national level and remains personally popular, her own coalition with Bavaria's Christian Social party is fraying badly.

How much of Sunday's vote was against the austerity that Merkel is forcing upon Europe and how much a reaction against the way Germany continues reluctantly to bail out the bankrupt European partners is an open question. Either way, it means voters are losing trust in Merkel's economic stewardship, even though Germany has recovered more strongly from the crisis than any other European economy.

Sunday's vote also reflected the ongoing crisis of the traditional two-party system, with smaller German parties continuing to take votes from the big two -- Merkel's Christian Democrats and the moderate-left Social Democrats. The Greens got 12 percent, the centrist Free Democrats recovered to 8 percent and the bizarre new Pirate Party, committed to Internet freedom and votes for teenagers, repeated its earlier success in Berlin.

All this took place as Greece slid further down the slope toward what the markets are calling "Grexit," a Greek exit from the euro, which many fear would trigger Europe's biggest crisis since World War II. After their chaotic elections and inability to form a coalition government, it isn't easy to see how Greece musters the political will to make the budget cuts and suffer the economic pain required to remain inside the euro.

But if Greece goes, it is also not easy to see how to prevent the contagion spreading to Portugal, Spain and even Italy as depositors take their euros from their own national banks and deposit them in safer German banks, rather than see savings eroded by devaluation.

The dirty secret here is that on close examination Germany's economic situation, despite its strong manufacturing sector and massive export trade, isn't nearly as strong as it looks.

Germany's Market Economy Foundation reports that in addition to the official national debt of roughly $2.6 trillion, there are $5.9 trillion in future benefit promises to retirees, the sick and people requiring nursing care. These are commitments that aren't documented in official budgets nor has any provision been made to finance them. When these commitments are included, Germany's real debt isn't the "official" 80 percent of gross domestic product but 276 percent.

Moreover, the disguised way in which Germany has continued to bail out the weaker Europeans is becoming a serious public issue. This is done through the "Target2" system of the European Central Bank, where the debits and credits of the various eurozone members are held.

There has been a sharp jump in the Bundesbank's Target2 claims within the European Central Bank's internal payment network from $706 billion in February to $795 billion in March. Bundesbank claims have risen six-fold since 2008. Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann is demanding collateral from weaker states for Target2 transfers.

These German credits, equivalent to $800 billion, are balanced by debts of Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian central banks of almost $850 billion. So long as the German central bank doesn't demand its money, it is in effect bankrolling the other European partners. And since this is done between central banks, there has been no parliamentary authorization for this hidden bailout.

"The euro-system is near explosion," said Professor Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany's IFO Institute, addressing Austria's Economics Academy on April 19. "This enormous international credit should have been subjected to the parliaments of Europe."

He may well be right. But the voters seem intent on throwing the parliaments of Europe into disarray or into coalitions that are either unworkable or impotent to take the decisive action required.

This might not be so alarming, were it not that even bigger political challenges lie in wait for Europe. Its social contract and generous welfare state is becoming steadily less sustainable as the society ages. More and more people are qualifying for pensions and expensive elderly healthcare while fewer and fewer young people are coming into the labor market and when they do there are few jobs for them.

If things look grim for Europe's incumbent politician now, they will soon look even worse as they are forced to push through new laws raising the retirement age, curbing pension and welfare payments and raising taxes.

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McCain urges suspension of Myanmar sanctions
Washington (AFP) May 14, 2012 - Key Republican Senator John McCain called Monday on the United States to suspend most sanctions on Myanmar, saying the administration must go further than planned to encourage the country's reforms.

McCain proposed that the United States, like the European Union, freeze sanctions on the country formerly known as Burma for a set time period with the exception of the embargo on arms sales.

McCain, who has traveled twice to Myanmar over the past year, acknowledged the country had more work to do on ending long-running ethnic wars but said President Thein Sein and his allies "are sincere about reform, and they are making real progress."

Such concrete moves "should be met with reciprocal actions by the United States that can strengthen these reforms, benefit ordinary Burmese and improve our relationship," McCain said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

McCain said the United States should still maintain a blacklist on trade with particular companies and individuals in Myanmar and ban US companies from doing business with military-dominated firms.

"The right investment would strengthen Burma's private sector, benefit its citizens and ultimately loosen the military's control over the economy and the civilian government," the Arizona senator said.

"The wrong investment would do the opposite -- entrenching a new oligarchy and setting back Burma's development for decades," he said.

"US businesses will never win a race to the bottom with some of their Asian -- or even European -- competitors, and they should not try," he said.

The administration of President Barack Obama, a Democrat who defeated McCain in the White House race in 2008, has been pursuing talks with Myanmar in hopes of ending the country's long isolation.

In its latest gesture, Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin will hold talks in Washington Thursday in a long-planned reciprocal visit to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's landmark December trip to Myanmar, a US official said.

The Obama administration announced on April 4 that it would allow limited investment and appoint an ambassador after Myanmar allowed by-elections in which democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi -- who spent most of the past two decades under house arrest -- won a seat in parliament.

But the administration has opposed a complete lifting of sanctions, saying that it needs to preserve leverage to encourage further reforms including an end to abuses by the military in ethnic minority areas.

Human rights groups have also opposed an immediate end to sanctions. But leading US businesses have urged a lifting of restrictions, saying they are losing out to Chinese and other competitors in a growing market.

Separately, McCain voiced concern about China, saying that the Asian power's fragility was laid bare by the power struggle that ousted political leader Bo Xilai and the escape to the US embassy of dissident Chen Guangcheng.

"I wonder about the real permanency of this regime that's now running China, and whether with things like a BlackBerry and a tweet and all of those things, whether there may not be maybe some real dissent," McCain said.

"I don't see how a group of men -- who most of the 1.3 billion people in China don't even know their names -- can continue to meet once a year in a seaside resort and determine the future of 1.3 billion people without something having to change either sooner or later," he said.

The blunt-speaking senator later clarified that, despite his concerns, he was not predicting "cataclysmic events" in China.



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Outside View: Threat to justice everywhere
London (UPI) May 14, 2012
Outlandish is probably the polite way to describe a claim made by the U.S. State Department during a recent court hearing on the People's Mujahedin of Iran. State Department counsel told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that the U.S. government had never had access to Camp Ashraf, the town to the north of Baghdad where many PMOI activists have lived for dec ... read more


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